Public Policy Archives - Conerly Consulting

15 Dec 2016

What State Government Can Do About Economic Uncertainty

Business Strategy Economy Public Policy

I testified before the Oregon legislature regarding uncertainty about the economy and state revenue forecast. The entire session, including two great fellow economists, Tim Duy and Andrew Dyke, can be seen here. Or watch just …

28 Nov 2016

Brexit and Donald Trump

Public Policy

One of the best explanations of free-trade motivations for Brexit is in this Reason interview with Daniel Hannan. This Englishman said, “Your founders had someone very like Donald Trump in mind when they designed all …

1 Apr 2016

Get Ready for President Clinton

Business Strategy Economy Investments Public Policy

We're still months away from the election, but my favorite political forecaster, Larry Sabato, has drilled down to important realities in The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters. He notes that it's too early …

17 Dec 2015

The Presidency and the Economy

Economy Public Policy

I don't incorporate much politics into my economic forecasts. I'm no better than average at predicting electoral outcomes. Even if I knew who was going to win, I wouldn't know what that person would do …

3 Sep 2015

Political Outlook 2016

Public Policy

The most interesting pollster is Larry Sabato, who recently had this to say about the presidential candidates: … most of them are human tape recorders. On the top 25 or 30 issues, each has memorized …

21 Sep 2014

Correlation and Causation: A Great Reminder

Business Strategy Economy Public Policy

We've heard it (and I've said it) thousands of times: correlation does not mean causation. Yet we still make the mistake (and I do mean "we"). Tyler Vigen has developed a correlation machine. He has …

2 Dec 2013

Should Economists Talk About Redistribution?

Public Policy

A distinguished economist was disqualified for an Obama administration appointment because she had talked about the need for redistribution policies. Rebecca Blank, a highly regarded researcher on poverty and inequality, had been considered to chair …

30 Aug 2013

Who Pays No Taxes?

Economy Public Policy

The Urban Institute's Tax Policy Center has a nice whiteboard video explaining who pays no federal income tax. The tone is liberal, but it is factually accurate. (I have not double-checked their facts, but it …

7 Mar 2013

Mostly Blogging at Forbes.com

Business Strategy Economy Public Policy

I was just asked why I'm not blogging much anymore. I am, but it's mostly on the Conerly Forbes.com page. Here's a list of recent articles: Easier Business Credit: 4 Strategies for Corporations and Small …

4 Jan 2013

What do prices know that you don’t know?

Economy Public Policy

Mike Munger asks that question in a great little video. He's a Duke professor; the school has made good progress since I was there.

1 Jan 2013

Middle Class Taxes Must Go Up–Or Middle Class Benefits Down

Economy Public Policy

Greg Mankiw has an excellent article in the New York Times. I've summarized the article in my title, but here are two telling excerpts: One point, however, cannot be disputed: Even if President Obama wins …

6 Dec 2012

A Keynesian Christmas

Economy Public Policy

Ifyou are a little skeptical about claims that spending more will spur the economy, listen to John Papola's "Deck the Halls with Macro Follies" (hat tip to Russ Roberts at Cafe Hayek)