503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Economic Growth Slowing

Economy

28 Jul 2006

Economic Growth Slowing

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy
  • 1 comment

The overall economy is expanding at a much slower pace.
Gdp

Growth rates of consumer spending and business equipment spending were both down.  Housing construction was also down, as was government.  The business equipment drop surprised me, but the slowdown in consumer spending and housing was expected (at least by me).  I was one of the few economists whose forecast was below the actual; most of my fellow forecasters had been expecting GDP growth higher than what materialized.

The lagged effects of the Federal Reserve tightening are now being felt, along with the impact of higher oil prices.  This report marks the transition to a slower growth economy.  I still see no signs of inflation, but I won’t argue with those who say that the risk of a recession has increased.  One gauge now pegs that risk at over 20% (over the next 12 months).  That sounds a tad high to me, but only a tad.

Business Strategy Implications:  Contingency planning first.  Sketch out what you’ll do if business sours more.  Even though it’s too early for most companies to execute the recession plans, it really helps to think through ahead of time what the action steps will be if sales growth slows.  I’d be happy to help; give me a call.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

    Comments

  1. Jack K. Miller
    August 10, 2006

    The growth slow down was overstated due to the ratcheting up of “rent” inflation. The US economy is extremely strong, as highlighted by your other comments (such as the surge in non-residential construction). Yes, the consumer has been rolled. Housing, cars and retail sales in general have taken the hit but business spending will be strong for the next several years. My guess is GNP will “recover” by the first quarter of ’07.

Comments are closed.

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • The Labor Market Is Tight Despite High Unemployment February 19, 2021
    Finding workers is hard despite the high unemployment rate, because many jobless folks don't match the skills needed, don't want to shift occupations or prefer to collect unemployment. Business focus on retention should be top priority.

Testimonials

Bill Conerly has been an invaluable resource to our executive team and ownership by delivering superior, well-founded ideas that are critical to navigating the current economic climate within the construction industry. Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment. We understand that navigating this current economy is indee…
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company
Your talk and its message stuck with people.
David Crowell, after presentation to National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association
We asked Bill Conerly to look at one of the major factors limiting the growth of our business. He pulled together data from a wide range of sources, as well as his own extensive business knowledge, to give us an insight into when conditions would improve and how we could be ready to capitalize on better times. He did so in a straight forward, easy to understand manner. A year later it was clear that things had evolved just as he had forecast. Ever since then he’s been my go-to guy on how the e…
Len Ludwig, former CEO, Vencore Capital LLC
Your presentation was right on the mark. I received more positive comments about you than any other presenter. We would not hesitate to recommend you to others or have you back for an encore performance.
Bob Russell, Oregon Trucking Association
Every time you spoke, we got business.
Chris Rasmussen, Washington Trust Bank, Bank of the Northwest
Dr. Bill Conerly opened our Ace Hardware Platinum Retailer Conference by helping our independent small business owners understand the current state of the economy in a straight forward and humorous manner that connected very well with the retailers I spoke with. Dr. Conerly provided information our retailers can use to lead their businesses. He connected with the audience and made a complicated topic understandable.
Mike Berschauer, Ace Hardware Corp
The ratings you received from our banker evaluations were among the highest I’ve seen, which matched my impressions exactly. Your presentation style is quite engaging, you bring interesting and valuable content, and our ability to interact in a stimulating way during “Q&A” sessions makes you a valuable addition to any meeting agenda. As a bonus, you are a genuinely enjoyable participant in conference activities beyond your presentation.
Steve Yeakel, Montana Independent Bankers
As you know, it can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are so entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments from members and others in attendance. I was very pleased with Dr. Conerly and have recommended him to NCSTAE, our national organization.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Dr. Conerly’s presentation and view of the economic conditions impacting the world of business is insightful and thought-provoking. His analysis and presentation style is audience focused and engaging, leading to the efficient development of follow-up activities by those in attendance.
Paul Ulrich, The Inteplast Group (plastic bags)
You made a complicated global picture understandable. I have received many favorable comments from those in attendance. I frequently heard comments like ‘Now I understand’ or ‘Wow, now I get it’ and ‘He was great to listen to. Thanks for bringing Bill to our meeting.’
Pete Van Sickle, Idaho Department of Lands

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC