Productivity on Strong Growth Trend

Productivity–output per hour of labor worked–remains on a strong growth trend.  That’s hard to see in the data, which were weak last quarter.  When the data first came out, I commented that separating short-term cycles from the underlying trend is difficult, but that my gut feel was that the trend was OK.

Now the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has issued a research report that says:
    "Conerly’s gut has uncanny accuracy."

Actually, those are not their exact words, just my interpretation.  The full report is a bit technical–recommended for economists and others with a serious research interest.

Hat tips to Mark Thoma and William J. Polley, both of whom offer their interpretation of the results–surprisingly, without mentioning my name.