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  • It’s Not Over Yet, Homebuilders

Economy

16 Feb 2007

It’s Not Over Yet, Homebuilders

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy
  • 2 comments

Ouch!  Housing starts really took a hit last month:
Starts

It’s not just unusually cold weather at work.  The western states had the steepest decline, though they are not usually as weather-affected as the northeast.  The northeast actually increased on a seasonally adjusted basis.  So what’s going on?  Overblown housing market is caving in.

Business Strategy Implications:  This is not the year that housing recovers, but later this year, housing will stop getting worse.

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    Comments

  1. Shane Milburn
    February 16, 2007

    Bill, do you translate your housing market analysis into stock market analysis?
    I missed the last large run in housing stocks and am interested in bottoms for these stocks once the bust is over.

  2. Bill Conerly
    February 23, 2007

    Not sure when bottom is. Probably some time late in 2007. With another 10% drop in housing starts, I think we’ll have worked off most of the excess inventory. But there’s some psychology regarding when the bottom feeders first start hitting the housing stocks, then when they get disappointed and bail out. You want to be the first of the second round of bottom feeders. good luck.

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