Behind the Stock Market
I’ve been ho-humming while everyone else is swooning. Yes, the market is up. Gee, though, this doesn’t feel like a boom to me. The market is up 15 percent from a year ago, which is very nice, and above average. But somehow it doesn’t FEEL like a boom.
Key metrics in boom-feel: go into a bar during business hours and look at the TV: tuned to stocks, it’s a boom. Tuned to a ball game, not a boom.
What does the next door neighbor talk about? Stocks, its a boom. The Trailblazer’s dismal performance, not a boom.
People say, "The market is up–and this times everything is different!" it’s a boom. "The market is up–is it poised for a correction?" It’s not a boom.
Barry Ritholtz has a good summary: it’s global markets pushing U.S. stocks up.
Comments
Bill, I agree completely. This market has “felt” fake to me for about 4 months. Right now more folks I talk to (not that many btw) are worried about a pull-back than further appreciation. The contrarian in me says that’s healthy for the market overall, but I keep thinking macro factors have to weigh in at some point. Too much of the economy is tied up in housing market problems, energy costs, currency devaluation/inflation, lending risks, etc.