503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Risk in Financial Markets: Going Up?

Economy

21 Aug 2007

Risk in Financial Markets: Going Up?

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy, Investments

Jim Hamilton over at Econbrowser has an interesting post entitled Where’s the Risk?  He looked at bond yield spreads and didn’t see any higher risk.

I wanted to look at daily data, in both long and short-term rates.  I found the risk:
Spreadpaper

I also found just a bit of an increase in longer maturities:

Spreadbonds

The widely-used Fed database of interest rates doesn’t include less-than-investment-grade issues, which is the first place I’d look for widening spreads.  Maybe one of you with a Bloomberg handy will show us some spreads.

This is good news: It suggests that the subprime crisis is not spilling over to other markets.  The risk of recession is not that the subprime mortgage market dries up; we can live without it.  The risk is that fundamentally sound borrowers will not have access to credit.  Although we could live with that in the long run, in the short run, a sudden drying up of credit is recessionary.

My best estimate: we skirt through this crisis without widespread repercussions.  But anyone who is  absolutely sure what the future holds is a moron.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • Inflation Has Not Shown Up Yet, But It’s Coming February 25, 2021
    Inflation is muted, but not for long. Inflation is coming in the next two years, then will be followed by a boom/bust business cycle, or maybe two.

Testimonials

Bill did a great job! There were many in the audience who liked him and many in the audience who loved him! Bill shared pertinent and timely information with our audience of commercial real estate professionals and added interesting stories and a funny sense of humor twist.
Jana Knoll, BOMA Boise
Our audience of local business and community leaders not only valued the economic data you provided, but they really appreciated that you made it applicable to their businesses, their personal lives and moreover – that you presented it in a clear and entertaining manner.
Scott Boyer, Mountain Pacific Bank
We asked Bill Conerly to look at one of the major factors limiting the growth of our business. He pulled together data from a wide range of sources, as well as his own extensive business knowledge, to give us an insight into when conditions would improve and how we could be ready to capitalize on better times. He did so in a straight forward, easy to understand manner. A year later it was clear that things had evolved just as he had forecast. Ever since then he’s been my go-to guy on how the e…
Len Ludwig, former CEO, Vencore Capital LLC
The ratings you received from our banker evaluations were among the highest I’ve seen, which matched my impressions exactly. Your presentation style is quite engaging, you bring interesting and valuable content, and our ability to interact in a stimulating way during “Q&A” sessions makes you a valuable addition to any meeting agenda. As a bonus, you are a genuinely enjoyable participant in conference activities beyond your presentation.
Steve Yeakel, Montana Independent Bankers
Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment.
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company (wood products)
Every time you spoke, we got business.
Chris Rasmussen, Washington Trust Bank, Bank of the Northwest
Your presentation was right on the mark. I received more positive comments about you than any other presenter. We would not hesitate to recommend you to others or have you back for an encore performance.
Bob Russell, Oregon Trucking Association
On multiple occasions we have engaged Dr. Conerly to facilitate, and more importantly, stimulate strategic planning sessions. He artfully brings the complexity of economic consequences to light, and is also is a veteran voice of objectivity. And his ability to inject humor keeps the energy and teamwork a priority!
Greg Newton, CFO, Cascade Bancorp
Bill is a delight and easy to work with. The client thought he was great and delivered value to their group. I would definitely recommend Bill.
Andrea Gold, Gold Stars Speakers Bureau
Bill Conerly is one of the most interesting and engaging speakers I have ever heard. The fact that he is a very funny man is a bonus.
James A. Kronenberg, Oregon Medical Association

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC