I’m a big fan of consensus economic forecasts. You average what we economists are thinking and you get a forecast that has proved, over time, to be more accurate than any one forecaster. I still pencil out my own prediction, but I tell my business clients that there’s good reason to rely on the consensus.
The pioneer of consensus economics, Bob Eggert, passed away last Friday. Read his obituary here.
Eggert was not only an economist (before retiring, chief economist of RCA), but an entrepreneur, starting up a business to publish–for profit–his tabulation of the consensus forecast. As a fellow trying to raise some angel finance myself, I have tremendous respect for him. There aren’t too many of us economist-entrepreneurs out there, and we just lost a great one.