Nonresidential construction will slow this year and next, according to the American Institute of Architects. (Details here.) Here are growth rates they are projecting:
| Commercial / industrial | 2008 | 2009 |
| • Hotels | 5.1% | -3.1% |
| • Office buildings | 1.7% | -3.7% |
| • Industrial facilities | -3.8% | 0.4% |
| • Retail | -5.7% | -3.6% |
| Institutional | ||
| • Health care facilities | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| • Education | 5.5% | -0.1% |
| • Public safety | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| • Amusement / recreation | 1.4% | -2.6% |
| • Religious | -1.0% | 4.0% |
Their forecast is in line with mine (though I don’t go into as much detail). Non-res has been a strong part of the economy over the past two and a half years, with no slow-down in activity yet. That’s probably because of the long lead times for many buildings. The doom-and-gloom of 2007 and 2008 will show up in the construction figures this year and next.
But look at their forecast of 2009 religious facilities. Maybe the downturn will help some folks return to spirituality. Or maybe developers have found a way to get financing for spec churches.