Back in August 2004 the Journal asked its economic forecast panel how high oil prices would have to go to trigger a recession. Here's the results:
Just for the record, here's how long it's been:
$50 or higher: 39 months
$60 or higher: 28 months
$70 or higher: 15 months
$80 or higher: 8 months.
My hat is off to the eight economists who had the high range. Their identities are not shown in the Journal's online database–so we may have 40 people claiming to be one of the eight.