I recently mentioned the value of consensus forecasts. We just got another survey, this one compiled by the Philadelphia Fed. I like it because it's been running consistently for quite some time, and it's free, available here.
Here's what their panel of forecasters expects:
|
Real GDP (%)
|
Unemployment Rate (%)
|
Payrolls (000s/month)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Previous
|
New
|
Previous
|
New
|
Previous
|
New
|
|
| Quarterly data: | ||||||
| 2009:Q1 |
-1.1
|
-5.2
|
7.0
|
7.8
|
-218.8
|
-548.4
|
| Q2 |
0.8
|
-1.8
|
7.4
|
8.3
|
-108.4
|
-311.2
|
| Q3 |
0.9
|
1.0
|
7.6
|
8.7
|
-7.2
|
-202.1
|
| Q4 |
2.3
|
1.8
|
7.7
|
8.9
|
19.8
|
-43.0
|
| 2010:Q1 |
N.A.
|
2.4
|
N.A.
|
9.0
|
N.A.
|
38.7
|
| Annual average data: | ||||||
| 2009 |
-0.2
|
-2.0
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
-130.1
|
-328.4
|
| 2010 |
N.A.
|
2.2
|
N.A.
|
8.8
|
N.A.
|
6.2
|
As I noted in my earlier post, I'm a bit more optimistic about next quarter, but I think this is a fine economic forecast input into a corporate planning process.
Your average man or woman on the street will think this is wildly optimistic, though. It's hard to get away from the doom and gloom in the press.