Consensus Economic Forecasts
A couple of folks have asked if my forecast, described here, is out in left field. That prompts me to offer a comparison of my economic outlook to two survey averages. The Wall Street Journal surveys (subscription required) 54 professional forecasters, mostly from financial institutions. The National Association for Business Economics surveys its members, with 47 participating in the latest tabulation, from a somewhat more diverse group of companies. Here's my forecast compared to the average of these two consensus forecast surveys:
Near term we're all pretty close, but I'm more optimistic about next year.
The most important point: recent press coverage would lead a person to think that no one was forecasting an end to the recession. However, an economic recovery beginning later this year is the consensus forecast.
Comments
Bill,
If I’m not wrong, the current forecasts would be based on an interpretation of the current downturn as a “typical recession,” as opposed to an exhaustion of leverage.
If leverage is exhausted, could this downturn not extend much longer – say years?
That is, until there are enough saving to fuel reinvestment?