503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Inventory Change Will Help Economic Outlook

Economy

14 Jan 2010

Inventory Change Will Help Economic Outlook

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy

Inventory swings have always been destabilizing, a point I made strongly in (if I may be so bold) a good book about economics and business.  Here's what the change in inventories did to the economy over the past two years:

GDP Contributions

The blue line shows the actual growth rate of GDP; the red line shows all components of GDP except the change in inventories.  Especially in the first quarter of 2009, the change in inventories made the recession significantly worse (though we were in a recession even without the inventory swing).  This was not just a statistical issue.  Factories cut back production because their customers were lowering inventory levels.

Going forward, businesses will eventually have to restock their shelves.  When that happens, a dollars worth of retail sales will trigger more than a dollar's worth of production, as companies both replace what they just sold plus add a little more to their inventory level.  And the inventory gain is happening right now.

Inven

The meek economic forecasts may not be anticipating a bounceback in inventories, which make them too pessimistic.  However, after four quarters of inventory recovery, the end of re-stocking will push down GDP growth for a quarter, so look for a little bit of roller coaster in your economic data.

Business Planning and Inventories: I wrote a few months ago about a company that lost a sale–and a loyal customer–due to lack of inventory. (Blog post about inventories.)  I was recently talking to executives who had a very nice sales boost because they had more inventory than their competitors.  When sales started to recover, they gained market share.  Friends, the business cycle is changing.  The time to slash inventories is past.  Now is the time to ensure that you can serve your customers.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • Trade Shows Will Regain Importance After The Covid-19 Pandemic March 1, 2021
    The benefits of exhibiting will help trade shows and conventions to resume, though with some changes.

Testimonials

Bill’s presentation was neatly balanced…rich with content.. and our audience really enjoyed his humor.
Bing Sheldon, SERA Architects
On multiple occasions we have engaged Dr. Conerly to facilitate, and more importantly, stimulate strategic planning sessions. He artfully brings the complexity of economic consequences to light, and is also is a veteran voice of objectivity. And his ability to inject humor keeps the energy and teamwork a priority!
Greg Newton, CFO, Cascade Bancorp
Dr. Conerly’s presentation and view of the economic conditions impacting the world of business is insightful and thought-provoking. His analysis and presentation style is audience focused and engaging, leading to the efficient development of follow-up activities by those in attendance.
Paul Ulrich, The Inteplast Group (plastic bags)
Bill Conerly is one of the most interesting and engaging speakers I have ever heard. The fact that he is a very funny man is a bonus.
James A. Kronenberg, Oregon Medical Association
It can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are also entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments about Dr. Conerly from members and others in the audience.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Bill is a delight and easy to work with. The client thought he was great and delivered value to their group. I would definitely recommend Bill.
Andrea Gold, Gold Stars Speakers Bureau
Bill was a great resource in helping us develop our business model and has continued to be a great advisor as we have refined it and successfully entered the marketplace.
John Courtney, CEO, NextJob, Inc.
We asked Bill Conerly to look at one of the major factors limiting the growth of our business. He pulled together data from a wide range of sources, as well as his own extensive business knowledge, to give us an insight into when conditions would improve and how we could be ready to capitalize on better times. He did so in a straight forward, easy to understand manner. A year later it was clear that things had evolved just as he had forecast. Ever since then he’s been my go-to guy on how the e…
Len Ludwig, former CEO, Vencore Capital LLC
Our audience of local business and community leaders not only valued the economic data you provided, but they really appreciated that you made it applicable to their businesses, their personal lives and moreover – that you presented it in a clear and entertaining manner.
Scott Boyer, Mountain Pacific Bank
Your presentation was right on the mark. I received more positive comments about you than any other presenter. We would not hesitate to recommend you to others or have you back for an encore performance.
Bob Russell, Oregon Trucking Association

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC