503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Recession End Still Not Official–But What’s That Mean for Business?

Economy

12 Apr 2010

Recession End Still Not Official–But What’s That Mean for Business?

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy

The committee that determines the beginning and ending dates for recessions still is not talking.  Actually, they issued a press release saying that there was nothing to say.  (Note: the date on the release is probably incorrect–these guys are not real good with dates.)

Let's understand their issues.  The committee does not have a fixed decision rule, but they often look at four coincident indicators:

Coincident
However, they are not simply tossing ideas around about whether the recession is over.  Instead, they ask themselves this key question:

If we begin getting very negative news on the economy tomorrow, will we say that the economy is in a new recession, or that we are in a continuation of the old recession?

They are NOT speculating on whether that bad news will actually come in.  For the purpose of dating the business cycle, they have to answer the hypothetical question.  If real income and employment had risen, as industrial production and real business sales have, then they would call new weakness a new recession.  But right now they would have a good argument, based on real income and employment, that new weakness is part of the old recession.  That tells them not to declare an end to the recession yet.

Another issue they cope with is data revisions.  All of these data are subject to revision by the government, especially real income and real business sales.  So they have to consider whether they are looking at some numbers that will be revised.

What are the business planning implications of the committee's delay in making a decision?  Don't take the news as negative, first of all.  These are academics who are in no hurry, who would rather get it right than get a decision made promptly.

What use should business leaders make of the recession's turning points?  I strongly recommend using those dates to determine an industry's vulnerability to recession, as in my case study on economic vulnerability.

For current information, though, don't give this issue too much of your time.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • Inflation Has Not Shown Up Yet, But It’s Coming February 25, 2021
    Inflation is muted, but not for long. Inflation is coming in the next two years, then will be followed by a boom/bust business cycle, or maybe two.

Testimonials

You are a master at your craft and a favorite of our audience.
Jim Parker, UBS Financial Services
Your talk and its message stuck with people.
David Crowell, after presentation to National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association
It can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are also entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments about Dr. Conerly from members and others in the audience.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Bill did a great job! There were many in the audience who liked him and many in the audience who loved him! Bill shared pertinent and timely information with our audience of commercial real estate professionals and added interesting stories and a funny sense of humor twist.
Jana Knoll, BOMA Boise
The ratings you received from our banker evaluations were among the highest I’ve seen, which matched my impressions exactly. Your presentation style is quite engaging, you bring interesting and valuable content, and our ability to interact in a stimulating way during “Q&A” sessions makes you a valuable addition to any meeting agenda. As a bonus, you are a genuinely enjoyable participant in conference activities beyond your presentation.
Steve Yeakel, Montana Independent Bankers
We asked Bill Conerly to look at one of the major factors limiting the growth of our business. He pulled together data from a wide range of sources, as well as his own extensive business knowledge, to give us an insight into when conditions would improve and how we could be ready to capitalize on better times. He did so in a straight forward, easy to understand manner. A year later it was clear that things had evolved just as he had forecast. Ever since then he’s been my go-to guy on how the e…
Len Ludwig, former CEO, Vencore Capital LLC
Seems no matter where I go, I hear you talking – and always doing a great job with different material well tailored to the audience. Very impressive!
Alan Shiffer, World Vision
You made a complicated global picture understandable. I have received many favorable comments from those in attendance. I frequently heard comments like ‘Now I understand’ or ‘Wow, now I get it’ and ‘He was great to listen to. Thanks for bringing Bill to our meeting.’
Pete Van Sickle, Idaho Department of Lands
Bill Conerly has been an invaluable resource to our executive team and ownership by delivering superior, well-founded ideas that are critical to navigating the current economic climate within the construction industry. Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment. We understand that navigating this current economy is indee…
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company
Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment.
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company (wood products)

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC