503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Economic Volatility: What I Told the Governor

Economy

29 Aug 2010

Economic Volatility: What I Told the Governor

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Economy

Governor Kulongoski met with his Council of Economic Advisers last week. Here's what I told him:

1. The economy is becoming more volatile. The period 1983-2007 was the calmest ever in American history, in terms of macroeconomic fluctuations. This was also the period of time when today's leaders in business, government and non-profits learned how to be leaders. (I'll elaborate on my forecast of greater volatility in the coming decade in a future post.)

2. State revenues are inherently hard to forecast. Fluctuations are driven by corporate profits, proprietors' profits, capital gains, and sales people's commissions, much more than by total employment of salaried employees.

3. I advise business clients to tighten up the time lag between changes in underlying sales an the business reaction to increasing volatility. Companies should pay more attention to their sales pipelines, watch inventories carefully, etc. However, the Oregon legislature, like many other states, will begin debating in January 2011  a budget for the July 2011 – June 2013 period. That's a very long way into an uncertain future. Perhaps the state should budget based on the pessimistic forecast from the state economist, with some "if-funds-available" add-ons to be implemented over the course of the biennium.

4. In a more cyclical environment, businesses should run with more margin for error, meaning less leverage and more working capital. The state policy equivalent is to re-build up its rainy day fund as fast a possible.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • Useful Economics—The Business Insights Not Being Taught In Colleges April 9, 2021
    College economics courses usually teach theory as a springboard to talk about policy: fiscal policy, monetary policy and regulatory policy. Yet few students end up in the Federal Reserve or Congress. Instead of policy, college grads should know a few key economics concepts.

Testimonials

Bill was a great resource in helping us develop our business model and has continued to be a great advisor as we have refined it and successfully entered the marketplace.
John Courtney, CEO, NextJob, Inc.
It can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are also entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments about Dr. Conerly from members and others in the audience.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Every time you spoke, we got business.
Chris Rasmussen, Washington Trust Bank, Bank of the Northwest
Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment.
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company (wood products)
Bill’s presentation was neatly balanced…rich with content.. and our audience really enjoyed his humor.
Bing Sheldon, SERA Architects
Dr. Bill Conerly opened our Ace Hardware Platinum Retailer Conference by helping our independent small business owners understand the current state of the economy in a straight forward and humorous manner that connected very well with the retailers I spoke with. Dr. Conerly provided information our retailers can use to lead their businesses. He connected with the audience and made a complicated topic understandable.
Mike Berschauer, Ace Hardware Corp
You are a master at your craft and a favorite of our audience.
Jim Parker, UBS Financial Services
Your talk and its message stuck with people.
David Crowell, after presentation to National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association
Bill Conerly has been an invaluable resource to our executive team and ownership by delivering superior, well-founded ideas that are critical to navigating the current economic climate within the construction industry. Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment. We understand that navigating this current economy is indee…
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company
On multiple occasions we have engaged Dr. Conerly to facilitate, and more importantly, stimulate strategic planning sessions. He artfully brings the complexity of economic consequences to light, and is also is a veteran voice of objectivity. And his ability to inject humor keeps the energy and teamwork a priority!
Greg Newton, CFO, Cascade Bancorp

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC