503-785-3485
bill@conerlyconsulting.com
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
Conerly Consulting Conerly Consulting
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Consulting
    • Approach/Philosophy
    • Sounding Board
    • Economics and Business Strategy
    • Assessment
    • Case Studies
    • Testimonials
  • Speaking
    • The Package
    • Topics
    • Testimonials
  • Writing
    • Businomics Newsletter
    • Businomics
    • The Flexible Stance
    • Blog
  • Industries
    • Banking/Finance
    • Manufacturing
    • Other Industries
  • Video
    • Speaking
    • Event Promotion
    • Business Planning
  • About
    • News Coverage
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Uncategorized
  • Probability of Recession: Is It Really One in Three?

Uncategorized

05 Aug 2011

Probability of Recession: Is It Really One in Three?

  • By Bill Conerly
  • In Uncategorized

Larry Summers recently wrote in the Washington Post:

On the current policy path, it would be surprising if growth were rapid enough to reduce unemployment even to 8.5 percent by the end of 2012…. With growth at less than 1 percent in the first half of this year, the economy is effectively at a stall and facing the prospects of shocks from a European financial crisis that is decidedly not under control, spikes in oil prices and declines in business and household confidence. The indicators suggest that the economy has at least a 1-in-3 chance of falling back into recession if nothing new is done to raise demand and spur growth.

Summer Summers is a voice to be respected. He is a top-notch economist who has served as Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard. How do I assess his view?

He's probably too gloomy. The more time people spend in Washington, they more importance they give to public policy. I'm enough of a Keynesian to think that fiscal policy matters a little, but it generally matters far, far less than newspaper headlines would suggest, and much much less than Beltway economists think.

He's right about the risk. I'm not saying the odds are 1 in 3, but what if the true odds are only 1 in 10?  I say "only" 1 in 10. You have insurance for risks far less probably than 1 in 10 (death, auto accident, fire, etc.)

What should business management due about economic risk? I've suggested a process for economic contingency planning. I suggest that every business, government agency and non-profit convene its management team and board and do some contingency planning for the possibility of another recession. However, my best forecast right now is that growth will accelerate enough to avoid a recession; not enough for us to feel good about the economy this year or next, but enough to avoid a recession. But I've been forecasting long enough to be humble about my ability to predict the next recession.

  • Share:
Bill Conerly

Search

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

View Latest Issue

RSS Bill’s Forbes Articles

  • The Labor Market Is Tight Despite High Unemployment February 19, 2021
    Finding workers is hard despite the high unemployment rate, because many jobless folks don't match the skills needed, don't want to shift occupations or prefer to collect unemployment. Business focus on retention should be top priority.

Testimonials

Bill did a great job! There were many in the audience who liked him and many in the audience who loved him! Bill shared pertinent and timely information with our audience of commercial real estate professionals and added interesting stories and a funny sense of humor twist.
Jana Knoll, BOMA Boise
AgFirst Farm Credit Bank has benefitted from Bill Conerly’s unique insights and perspectives several times over the past five years…his materials consistently cover the points that we agree on…he has been very well-received by our groups, and we look forward to having Bill with us again in the future.
Ronnie Hucks, AgFirst Farm Credit, Columbia
Bill was a great resource in helping us develop our business model and has continued to be a great advisor as we have refined it and successfully entered the marketplace.
John Courtney, CEO, NextJob, Inc.
As you know, it can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are so entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments from members and others in attendance. I was very pleased with Dr. Conerly and have recommended him to NCSTAE, our national organization.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Your talk and its message stuck with people.
David Crowell, after presentation to National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association
Bill is a delight and easy to work with. The client thought he was great and delivered value to their group. I would definitely recommend Bill.
Andrea Gold, Gold Stars Speakers Bureau
Bill Conerly is one of the most interesting and engaging speakers I have ever heard. The fact that he is a very funny man is a bonus.
James A. Kronenberg, Oregon Medical Association
Bill Conerly has been an invaluable resource to our executive team and ownership by delivering superior, well-founded ideas that are critical to navigating the current economic climate within the construction industry. Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment. We understand that navigating this current economy is indee…
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company
You made a complicated global picture understandable. I have received many favorable comments from those in attendance. I frequently heard comments like ‘Now I understand’ or ‘Wow, now I get it’ and ‘He was great to listen to. Thanks for bringing Bill to our meeting.’
Pete Van Sickle, Idaho Department of Lands
On multiple occasions we have engaged Dr. Conerly to facilitate, and more importantly, stimulate strategic planning sessions. He artfully brings the complexity of economic consequences to light, and is also is a veteran voice of objectivity. And his ability to inject humor keeps the energy and teamwork a priority!
Greg Newton, CFO, Cascade Bancorp

Get in touch

(503) 785-3485

bill@conerlyconsulting.com

PO Box 2188
Lake Oswego, OR 97035

Useful Links

  • Consulting
  • Speaking
  • Videos
  • Blog
  • Press
  • Contact

Social Links

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin

Newsletters

Copyright 2020 Conerly Consulting LLC