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  • The Flexible Stance: Thriving in a Boom/Bust Economy

The Flexible Stance: Thriving in a Boom/Bust Economy

Visualize a baseball game. A fast runner is on first base, looking to steal second. The runner takes a lead, then plants himself in a flexible stance. He’s ready to run in either direction: to second base if he gets a chance to steal, or back to first base if the pitcher tries to pick him off. Using that stance in business is the subject of this book.

The economic outlook is uncertain—this year and in the future. Economists failed to predict the recessions of 2008, 2001, 1990 and 1982. Technology is changing faster than ever before, forcing businesses to confront different consumer demands as well as new production processes. Social attitudes also change faster in a more connected world. Gay marriage, marijuana and “pink slime” are all cases where public thinking changed rapidly. On top of these issues, government policy has moved in unprecedented directions, with highly uncertain results.

The flexible stance is hard for business leaders, who usually rose to top positions using the sprinter’s stance: focus on the tape 100 meters away, looking neither left nor right. Traditional corporate planning tries to develop the one perfect forecast of the future, then optimizes the company for that scenario. Unfortunately, the future often does not cooperate.

Techniques for a more flexible stance include evaluating everyday decisions with an eye to whether they enable adjustment to change or inhibit adjustment. Contingency plans should be developed for both upside and downside possibilities. Faster execution reduces risk. Sometimes—but not always—diversification can increase flexibility. The successful business leaders of the future will be humble about their ability to predict the future, but aggressive in developing the flexibility to thrive whatever the future brings.

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Chapter Summaries

1 – The Need for a Flexible Stance

Business leaders must adopt a flexible stance, ready to advance if conditions are favorable, but also ready to retreat if the external environment turns negative.

2 – The Failure of Forecasts–You Won’t See the Next Recession Coming

Economists failed to forecast the last four recessions; why you cannot expect them to predict the next one.

3 – Technological Progress Accelerates

The technologies that will impact your business in the future are difficult to anticipate today.

4 – Business Is a Social Activity

Attitudes about business products and practices are changing quickly and will continue to change in unpredictable ways.

5 – Government and Business

Government’s impact on business is hard to anticipate because of polarization, complex legislation, unprecedented policy and unintended consequences..

6 – Competition Less Predictable

New competitors are popping up in many industries: Uber, Amazon and pop-up stores are examples, enabled by low capital needs, short production runs and globalization.

7 – Today’s Decisions, Tomorrow’s Flexibility

Common business decisions may increase or decrease the company’s flexibility to expand or contract in the future.

8 – Making Plans That Will Help You Through Hard Times

How to develop contingency plans that enable your company to survive the bust as well as to be ready to thrive in the recovery.

9 – Good Times Bring Surprising Challenges

Good news comes with challenges of how to increase output and how to finance expansion.

10 – Strategy in the Flexible Company

Traditional strategic planning was based on the one best forecast of the future. The new strategic planning recognizes the value of flexibility in an uncertain environment.

11 – Faster Is Safer

Business processes takes time, but bad things can happen while waiting for payment, so speed up where you can.

12 – Diversification and Risk

Diversification is not as useful for reducing business risk as it is for investment risk, but some diversity can help cope with uncertainty about the future.

13 – Managing Flexibly in an Inflexible Company

Many bosses consider contingency plans to be defeatism. Here’s how to thrive in such an environment.

14 – Public Policy and The Flexible Stance

Governments are vulnerable to unforeseen change. Here’s what citizens should want their governments to do given the uncertain environment.

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  • Useful Economics—The Business Insights Not Being Taught In Colleges April 9, 2021
    College economics courses usually teach theory as a springboard to talk about policy: fiscal policy, monetary policy and regulatory policy. Yet few students end up in the Federal Reserve or Congress. Instead of policy, college grads should know a few key economics concepts.

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As you know, it can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are so entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments from members and others in attendance. I was very pleased with Dr. Conerly and have recommended him to NCSTAE, our national organization.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Dr. Conerly’s presentation and view of the economic conditions impacting the world of business is insightful and thought-provoking. His analysis and presentation style is audience focused and engaging, leading to the efficient development of follow-up activities by those in attendance.
Paul Ulrich, The Inteplast Group (plastic bags)
You are a master at your craft and a favorite of our audience.
Jim Parker, UBS Financial Services
Bill assisted O.B. Williams Company with developing a strong business plan that we implemented 18 months ago. As a result and together with Bill, we are improving our position within our highly competitive market segment.
David Wick, CEO, O.B. Williams Company (wood products)
Your talk and its message stuck with people.
David Crowell, after presentation to National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association
Your presentation was right on the mark. I received more positive comments about you than any other presenter. We would not hesitate to recommend you to others or have you back for an encore performance.
Bob Russell, Oregon Trucking Association
It can be difficult to find economists who provide good substantive information who are also entertaining and engaging. I received many enthusiastic comments about Dr. Conerly from members and others in the audience.
Molly Steckel, Idaho Telecom Alliance
Thank you for a wonderful presentation. Everyone who heard your presentation was impressed with your analysis, and strong command of facts and theory. More importantly, your ability to weave together substance with humor, in a very dynamic way, meant our attendees learned and retained more information than we would have typically expected. You made economics fun and you left our members with powerful insights on trends and issues to consider as they prepare for the future.
John Aguirre, Oregon Association of Nurseries
Dr. Bill Conerly opened our Ace Hardware Platinum Retailer Conference by helping our independent small business owners understand the current state of the economy in a straight forward and humorous manner that connected very well with the retailers I spoke with. Dr. Conerly provided information our retailers can use to lead their businesses. He connected with the audience and made a complicated topic understandable.
Mike Berschauer, Ace Hardware Corp
On multiple occasions we have engaged Dr. Conerly to facilitate, and more importantly, stimulate strategic planning sessions. He artfully brings the complexity of economic consequences to light, and is also is a veteran voice of objectivity. And his ability to inject humor keeps the energy and teamwork a priority!
Greg Newton, CFO, Cascade Bancorp

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